By Jamie Martin
The start of 2025 marks a difficult phase for fertilizer markets as global uncertainties continue to impact supply and demand. With geopolitical tensions on the rise, fertilizer prices have increased significantly, making them less affordable for farmers worldwide. RaboResearch highlights this shift with a negative trend in its affordability index, indicating a transition to a more expensive input cycle.
“RaboResearch’s fertilizer affordability index indicates a transition between cycles, moving from a period of relative affordability to one where fertilizers are less affordable and the index turns negative,” said Bruno Fonseca, Senior Analyst – Farm Inputs with RaboResearch. “We expect this unfavorable scenario for the fertilizer market to persist throughout the year.
Farmers across Africa, Australia, Europe, and the Americas are hesitant to make bulk purchases, waiting for clearer market signals. India, an essential buyer in this market, has seen a drop in seasonal demand, and its fertilizer stocks are running low. Meanwhile, China continues to restrict exports, creating global shortages, especially for phosphates and nitrogen fertilizers. These restrictions are expected to ease in the latter half of the year.
In the crop market, corn holds price potential due to low global stocks, while soybeans face bearish trends due to strong Brazilian yields and lower US exports. Trade tensions and tariffs are also major concerns, weakening longstanding trade ties and impacting market prices.
Fonseca warns that tariff-driven policy changes have increased input costs in the US compared to global rates. Still, key crop markets are showing resilience and are trading within expected ranges, allowing room for opportunity in a volatile environment.
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