By Jamie Martin
The U.S. beef industry saw strong profitability and record price levels in 2025, but analysts now expect the market to begin shifting toward a softer tone in 2026. Industry leaders shared these market expectations during Beef Industry University, an event supported by the Farm Credit Associations of Kansas. Their comments suggest that changing supply conditions and trade adjustments will play important roles in shaping the months ahead.
The forecast is built on three key assumptions. First, the Mexican border is expected to reopen in early 2026, restoring normal cross-border movement of cattle. Second, tariffs are likely to stabilize, improving trade flows. Third, national cattle supplies are projected to begin increasing between 2026 and 2027, contributing to a gradual easing of prices.
Calf prices are expected to range from $350 to $425 per hundredweight next year. Feeder cattle are projected to average $300 to $340 per hundredweight. Fed cattle may start 2026 trading between $220 and $240 per hundredweight before softening to $200 to $220 per hundredweight later in the year as herd expansion takes effect.
Even with this downward adjustment, industry analysts emphasize that producers should not view the change as a downturn. Profit levels may remain steady enough to support continued herd rebuilding. “Profitability is still going to be there, and it’s still the right time to think about expansion,” said Kevin Good CattleFax Vice President of Industry Relations and Analysis. “But we have to recognize the lower trend.”
Rising cattle numbers are a normal part of the industry cycle, and they naturally result in more beef entering the market. This shift can place pressure on prices, but it also opens doors for producers who plan strategically and adapt to longer-term trends.
As 2026 approaches, cattle producers may benefit from watching market indicators closely and maintaining flexible management plans. Though prices may ease from their recent highs, the overall outlook suggests steady opportunities for growth and stability within the beef sector.
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