By Jamie Martin
The temporary expansion of the U.S. tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings has not resulted in a significant decline in retail ground beef prices, according to American Farm Bureau Federation economists Bernt Nelson and Faith Parum, Ph.D.
The administration expanded the quota in late August by 300,000 metric tons, equivalent to approximately 661 million pounds. The additional beef became eligible to enter the United States at the lower tariff rate beginning September 1, 2026.
The proclamation encouraged grocery retailers to offer a 25% price reduction, but retailers were not required to participate, and no enforcement system was included.
The American Farm Bureau Federation examined the impact by monitoring prices for 80% lean ground beef at 41 grocery stores across 22 states.
The survey began September 2, 2026, and included a mix of national chains and independent stores serving communities ranging from major metropolitan areas to rural locations.
The data showed that consumer prices changed very little during the first three weeks. The average price was $7.29 per pound on Sept. 2 and $7.13 on September 23, 2026, representing a decline of just 16 cents, or approximately 2%. The daily average remained within a relatively narrow range, from $7.13 to $7.38.
Price differences between individual stores were much larger. The surveyed stores charged between $4.99 and $10.49 per pound, while the median price was $7.23.
More than half of the stores, 22 out of 41, charged more than $7 per pound. Four locations reported prices approaching or exceeding $9 per pound.
Most retailers did not change their prices. Thirty stores were selling ground beef at the same price on September 23 as they were on September 2. Seven stores finished the period with lower prices, but only three reached the 25% reduction encouraged by the presidential proclamation.
Four stores actually increased prices, including locations in Des Moines and Davenport, Iowa; East Lansing, Michigan; and Denver.
Nelson and Parum emphasized that tariff reductions affect only one component of the beef supply chain. Grocery prices also reflect cattle costs, processing, transportation, wages, operating expenses, and retailer margins.
As a result, cheaper imported beef does not necessarily produce an immediate reduction at the supermarket.
The findings also point to continuing supply challenges for U.S. cattle producers. The U.S. calf crop is projected at 32.5 million head, reflecting a shrinking domestic cattle base.
Increasing domestic cattle numbers and beef production could therefore play a significant role in improving long-term beef availability and price stability.
Photo Credit: american-farm-bureau-federation
Categories: National