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AccuWeather Predicts Even Lower Corn, Soybean Yields
Pennsylvania Ag Connection - 06/26/2019

AccuWeather's new estimates for corn and soybean yield for 2019 are even lower than previously forecasts as a result of continued bad weather and new data in Monday's U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress.

AccuWeather predicts a 2019 corn yield of 13.13 billion bushels, which is lower than its June 10 estimate of 13.26. The USDA estimates the 2019 corn yield at 13.68 as of June 11, though it will offer an updated forecast on Friday for both corn and soybeans.

The USDA's initial 2019 corn yield estimate was 15.03 billion bushels, after production was 14.41 (2018) and 14.61 (2017) billion bushels the last two years.

For the 2019 soybean yield, AccuWeather forecasts a drop to 3.942 billion bushels, a decrease from its June 10 estimate of 3.952. The USDA's two estimates for the season so far have both been 4.150 billion bushels after production totaled 4.544 and 4.412 billion bushels in 2018 and 2017, respectively.

The rain and flooding that has affected Corn Belt farmers continues to be reflected in the poor Crop Progress numbers. The percentage of corn considered "good" or "excellent" in 18 key corn-producing states dropped from the previous week from 59% to 56%. The five-year average for the condition of corn rated "good" or "excellent" is 77%.

"The percentage is going down -- and that's a bad direction," said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls. "It's not that it dropped all that much, it's just the fact that it has dropped at all is surprising ... The heavy rains in southern Illinois and parts of Missouri that got 3 to 5 inches contributed to the deterioration."

Missouri had just 28% of its corn rated "good" or "excellent," while Ohio had 39%, Michigan had 40% and Illinois was at 47%.

Some good news for Corn Belt farmers: "This week, the weather will turn and get drier," Nicholls said.

Soybean planting, as AccuWeather predicted, rose in 18 key U.S. soybean-producing states, according to the Crop Progress. The report showed 85% of soybeans were planted as of June 23, after the percentage was at 77% the previous week. The five-year average for the date is 97%.

Ohio (65%), Missouri (66%) and Michigan (69%) continue to show the worst percentages, while Louisiana (99%), Minnesota (98%) and North Dakota (98%) lead the way.

"Those three states still in the 60s, especially Missouri, are going to end up losing some soybean acres because of the wet weather," Nicholls said.

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